Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time

Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time

Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time | MyKCM

Last week, the National Association for Business Economics released their February 2019 Economic Policy Survey. The survey revealed that a majority of the panel believe an economic slowdown is in the near future:

“While only 10% of panelists expect a recession in 2019, 42% say a recession will happen in 2020, and 25% expect one in 2021.”

Their findings coincide with three previous surveys calling for a slowdown sometime in the next two years:

  1. The Pulsenomics Survey of Market Analysts
  2. The Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists
  3. The Duke University Survey of American CFOs

That raises the question: Will the real estate market be impacted like it was during the last recession?

A recession does not equal a housing crisis. According to the dictionary definition, a recession is:

“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

During the last recession, prices fell dramatically because the housing collapse caused the recession. However, if we look at the previous four recessions, we can see that home values weren’t negatively impacted:

  • January 1980 to July 1980: Home values rose 4.5%
  • July 1981 to November 1982: Home values rose 1.9%
  • July 1990 to March 1991: Home values fell less than 1%
  • March 2001 to November 2001: Home values rose 4.8%

Most experts agree with Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist, who recently explained:

“There’s no reason to panic right now, even if we may be headed for a recession. We’re seeing a cooling of the housing market, but nothing that indicates a crash.”

The housing market is just “normalizing”. Inventory is starting to increase and home prices are finally stabilizing. This is a good thing for both buyers and sellers as we move forward.

Bottom Line

If there is an economic slowdown in our near future, there is no need for fear to set in. As renowned financial analyst, Morgan Housel, recently tweeted:

“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”

Snohomish County Statistics December 2017

December is known for being on the cold side and a sign of a slowing Real Estate market as everyone starts to enjoy the holidays. Not this year however! December was smoking hot. A new record of 16 days inventory pushed buyers to snatch up everything they could and quickly.

Active Inventory

 -2% December 2017 vs. December 2016

781 available homes currently on market -347 vs. last month.

Pending Transactions

-4% December 2017 vs. December 2016

1255 units -336 vs. last month

Sold Transactions

+12%!!! December 2017 vs. 2016

1516 units +101 than last month

Days on Market

Snohomish County Active to pending 34 days vs. 39 a year ago. Up 4 days from last month (normal with the holidays).

Median home price in Snohomish County 448,000 +12% last year.  Up $4,000 from last month.

Area price % based on last Quarter

All percentages are up and also include new construction

Bothell + 20%, Edmonds/Lynnwood +15%. Everett/Mukilteo +10%

Snohomish/Monroe+ 17%. Lake Stevens/Granite Falls + 15%.  Marysville +13%

King County Median home prices are $611,000 + 15% over last year and up $27k from last month.

Woodinville area Median price is $678!!

Of the more than 3,100 counties across the U.S., none saw a bigger net increase than Pierce and Snohomish in movers from other counties. Is this a reflection of people being priced out of King County?96961280-1033-11e7-92dc-5affb0e7ac5c

November Real Estate Market.. HOT, HOT!

 

Snohomish County Statistics as of November 2016

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November is known for being on the cold side and normally signs of a slowing Real Estate market as everyone starts to buckle in for the winter and holidays. Not this year however! November was smoking hot with only 1.4 month of inventory and buyers were snatching up everything they could. I saw multiple offers skyrocketing and bidding wars with some homes being bid up 100K. The picture to the left is a Bothell home that had 32 offers and was bid up 95k! Crazy!!

Here are your local inventory stats.

 

Active Inventory

 +17% November 2016 vs. November 2015

1111 available homes currently on market -800 vs. last month.

Pending Transactions

Up 1% November 2016 vs. November 2015

1528 units -88 vs. last month

Sold Transactions

+27%!!! November 2016 vs. 2015

1452 units -182 than last month

Days on Market

Snohomish County Active to pending 33 days vs. 47 a year ago up 7 days from last month.

Median home price in Snohomish County 399,000 +14% last year.  Up $7,000 from last month.

Area price % based on last Quarter

All percentages are up and also include new construction

Bothell + 16%, Edmonds/Lynnwood +17%. Everett/Mukilteo +12%

Snohomish/Monroe+ 11%. Lake Stevens/Granite Falls + 17%.

Marysville +14%

King County Median home prices are $523,000 + 16% over last year and up $6k from last month.

Woodinville area Median price is $550!!

Trends, local news & Real Estate dose of Awesomeness!

Check out these articles for great information about our community and the real estate industry.

REAL ESTATE news

What to expect for the 2017 housing market

Optimism and caution set to greet real estate in 2017

MORTGAGE & FINANCE news

How to save money as a last minute holiday shopper

How important is your credit score?

6 steps to take to ensure you don’t outlive your money

HOME trends 

Some “green” features can increase your home’s value more than others

Pinterest 100 pins for 2017

Design recipes to make your space bright

LOCAL news

Washington considers road use tax based on how many miles you drive

The new SR 99 Tunnel is 70 percent complete

Seattle must halt plan for more backyard cottages

Boeing cutting production of 777 beginning next year

WEEKLY DOSE OF awesomeness

Tricked-out tiny house has motorized furniture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Curious when the best time to buy a house is? 

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You’re not alone.

As a Realtor, one of the questions I hear most frequently is, “When is the best time to buy a house?”

The answer is simple – the best time to buy a house is the right time for you.

That being said, the housing market does experience some seasonal patterns. Traditionally, folks don’t want to move during the holidays and they desperately want to get into a better school district prior to school starting.

This means inventory is typically low during the winter and demand is often high during the summer. While inventory has a tendency to peak during August, buyers who have been on the hunt for a substantial amount of time begin to experience fatigue.

By the time fall rolls around, many house hunters have given up and signed a lease or decided to stay in their current home for another year. In fact, the Seattle area housing market has gone like gangbusters from January through July of this year. Homes were flying off the market. Bidding wars were common. Buyers were waiving inspection and guaranteeing earnest money.

There was a tapering off in August. Bidding wars became less frequent and listed homes received fewer offers. Now that we have hit fall, the competition has dropped even further. Yet, interest rates still remain at record lows.

As a potential buyer, this is great news. With low rates and less competition, you have more choices. Doesn’t fall sound like a good time to buy a home?

Ready to find a home? I can guide you to great lenders, programs that fit your budget and of, course, find you a home. Contact me today!