Last week, the National Association for Business Economics released their February 2019 Economic Policy Survey. The survey revealed that a majority of the panel believe an economic slowdown is in the near future:
“While only 10% of panelists expect a recession in 2019, 42% say a recession will happen in 2020, and 25% expect one in 2021.”
Their findings coincide with three previous surveys calling for a slowdown sometime in the next two years:
That raises the question: Will the real estate market be impacted like it was during the last recession?
A recession does not equal a housing crisis. According to the dictionary definition, a recession is:
“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”
During the last recession, prices fell dramatically because the housing collapse caused the recession. However, if we look at the previous four recessions, we can see that home values weren’t negatively impacted:
Most experts agree with Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist, who recently explained:
“There’s no reason to panic right now, even if we may be headed for a recession. We’re seeing a cooling of the housing market, but nothing that indicates a crash.”
The housing market is just “normalizing”. Inventory is starting to increase and home prices are finally stabilizing. This is a good thing for both buyers and sellers as we move forward.
If there is an economic slowdown in our near future, there is no need for fear to set in. As renowned financial analyst, Morgan Housel, recently tweeted:
“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”
This meme pretty much sums it up. Call me for the best pricing strategy so you are not shut out of the market!
REAL ESTATE news
Sales of existing homes slipped 0.7 percent in July, fourth straight monthly decline
Lower priced homes are experiencing fewer price reductions than upper end properties
Home value growth slowing in several hot markets
MORTGAGE & FINANCE news
Young homebuyers funding home down payment from their retirement account
Massive student debt makes homeownership almost impossible
Guide to understanding your home’s value
Declutter your kitchen and double your storage space
Questions to ask before buying a condo
Buyers see hope on the horizon in cooling Seattle market
Seattle-area drops to the #12 market for home price growth
Home price acceleration slows, but it’s still a challenge if you’re a buyer
Seattle #2 on list of best cities for ice cream lovers
Performing arts and affordable housing come together in planned Rainier Valley development
The SR-99 tunnel gets its stripes (and some running stick figures)
Port of Everett breaks ground on huge and historic modernization project
Where do Washington State’s billionaires live?
WEEKLY DOSE OF awesomeness
What do the smart home systems of the wealthy have that Alexa doesn’t?
(hint: Morgan Freeman)
December is known for being on the cold side and a sign of a slowing Real Estate market as everyone starts to enjoy the holidays. Not this year however! December was smoking hot. A new record of 16 days inventory pushed buyers to snatch up everything they could and quickly.
-2% December 2017 vs. December 2016
781 available homes currently on market -347 vs. last month.
-4% December 2017 vs. December 2016
1255 units -336 vs. last month
+12%!!! December 2017 vs. 2016
1516 units +101 than last month
Days on Market
Snohomish County Active to pending 34 days vs. 39 a year ago. Up 4 days from last month (normal with the holidays).
Median home price in Snohomish County 448,000 +12% last year. Up $4,000 from last month.
Area price % based on last Quarter
All percentages are up and also include new construction
Bothell + 20%, Edmonds/Lynnwood +15%. Everett/Mukilteo +10%
Snohomish/Monroe+ 17%. Lake Stevens/Granite Falls + 15%. Marysville +13%
King County Median home prices are $611,000 + 15% over last year and up $27k from last month.
Woodinville area Median price is $678!!
Of the more than 3,100 counties across the U.S., none saw a bigger net increase than Pierce and Snohomish in movers from other counties. Is this a reflection of people being priced out of King County?
The kids are going back to school and cool crisp nights are coming soon. Are you ready for fall? Here is your September newsletter with an eye on the market, local happenings and some items to prepare your home for the cooler months ahead.
If you are refinancing, purchasing or selling this is a must read. I tell all my clients to call me first and double check if they get any suspicious email or phone call. Do not let this happen to you!